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Ten years after the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that polarised the nation and unleashed chaos, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

The government and voters drifted into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is equipped.

That is the message from two respected journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Establishments Ill-Equipped

The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and transformative referendum.

"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains very unstable."

Released Volume Aims to Provoke Discussion

The pair have studied the political, financial and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of speaking events that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What troubles all parties, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.

"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extremely split population where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side don't know quite what it is that they have won."

Legal Framework

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would approve.

Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is looming, and a group called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists play down the possibility, making it uncertain if and when there will be a national vote.

Insufficient Substantive Discussion

Partisan language for and against unity has masked the lack of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.

"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to make it possible has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but scarcely any elected officials or advocates want to engage with even the essentials. To illustrate, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"

Publication's Method

In the volume, none of the commentators advocates unification or the current situation. Each composes two articles that aim for impartiality in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling financial and societal statistics, past examples and governmental frameworks.

Arguments range over national emblems, levies, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to educate and encourage conversation.

"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," said O’Toole. "Debate suggests an recognition of the idea that there may exist reasonable perspectives on both sides."

Parallel Votes

A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate claim they support unification but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a different emblem to reflect unionists' British culture.

"Authorities in Dublin must work out what the plan from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.

Possibility of Public Vote

The journalist believes a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur abruptly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent official who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"

Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate arguments, he said. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and somebody will eventually lose but each side has has valuable insights to learn from the other's arguments."

Request for Broader Dialogue

Westminster needed to engage with the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish question."